Crypto markets are fueling nearly $80 million in bets on Anthropic's possible $2 trillion IPO, with Binance leading the action and traders speculating on a company that remains private and has yet to set terms.
Crypto traders are making large bets on Anthropic's possible $2 trillion IPO, pushing open interest in related futures contracts close to $80 million. Anthropic is still private and hasn't released any official price or share count, but that hasn't slowed the action. The result is a parallel market where investors are wagering on Anthropic's future valuation before Wall Street gets involved, showing how crypto derivatives are increasingly overlapping with traditional equity speculation.
Pre-IPO futures activity
On Binance and other major crypto exchanges, pre-IPO perpetual contracts tied to Anthropic have become a focus for speculators. CoinGlass data shows open interest in these contracts at about $79.27 million, just shy of a record $80 million. More than $20 million in futures traded hands in a single day, with Binance making up around 40% of the volume. These contracts don't represent real Anthropic shares and aren't backed by any spot market. Instead, they're cash-settled derivatives that let traders bet on what Anthropic's public valuation might be if and when it lists.
- Reuters
How these markets work
Unlike tokenized stocks, which are usually backed by real securities, Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetuals are synthetic. They reference an expected share price or company valuation, but no actual shares are involved. This setup allows trading on company news even before an IPO prospectus is filed or terms are set. For example, OpenAI-linked contracts have seen price swings tied to product launches and executive comments, and now Anthropic's rumored $2 trillion valuation is driving similar trades.
IPO timeline and regulatory backdrop
Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, 2026. That's the only IPO step the company has confirmed so far. As of mid-September 2026, there was still no public registration statement, share count, price range, ticker, or listing date, and no S-1 had appeared on EDGAR. Reuters reported that Anthropic was expected to start marketing the IPO in mid-October at the earliest, aiming for a Nasdaq listing in November. The company is reportedly considering raising up to $100 billion, with Nvidia discussing a possible anchor investment of up to $10 billion.
The SEC's confidential filing process lets companies like Anthropic begin regulatory review without immediately revealing deal terms. As a result, the market hasn't seen the usual public S-1 details, leaving crypto traders to speculate on valuation and structure without official disclosures.
- CoinDesk
Speculation and market impact
Open interest in Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO contracts has jumped, with Binance Research reporting a combined total above $160 million this month-up from just $1 million in April. Anthropic and OpenAI made up about 95% of pre-IPO perpetual volume in the first half of September. Rising open interest means more traders and leverage, but it doesn't show whether the market is bullish or bearish, since every contract has both a long and a short side. The size of these markets means crypto traders are setting a reference price for Anthropic before traditional equity investors see any official IPO documents.
This speculative trading is happening as regulators pay closer attention to crypto markets. In a related move, South Korea's government is sticking with plans for a 22 percent crypto gains tax in 2027, despite industry pushback and a petition that triggered legislative review, as reported earlier.
CoinGlass data shows the ANTHROPIC pre-stock contract trading around $2,147, with no spot trading or circulating supply. The focus is on price discovery and speculation, not actual ownership of Anthropic equity. The gap between crypto market pricing and Wall Street's eventual IPO terms will likely shrink once Anthropic's registration documents are public, letting traders and investors compare their assumptions with the company's real financials and share structure.
Anthropic's pre-IPO futures market shows how crypto exchanges are letting traders speculate on private companies long before they go public. For U.S. investors, these synthetic contracts offer a way to bet on expected IPO valuations, but they also carry significant risks because there are no underlying assets, little regulatory clarity, and no official disclosures. As more companies like Anthropic and OpenAI become the focus of pre-IPO trading, the line between traditional equity markets and crypto derivatives is blurring, raising new questions about transparency, leverage, and regulation in these fast-moving markets.
Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are cash-settled derivatives that reference a company's expected valuation or share price before it lists publicly. Unlike tokenized stocks, which are usually backed by real shares held in custody, these contracts are purely synthetic and don't give any ownership rights. Traders can go long or short, but with no underlying assets, prices are driven entirely by speculation and sentiment. This setup allows for quick price discovery, but also means contract values can swing sharply away from the eventual IPO price once official terms are released.
