XRP's largest holders are still underwater, with most coins last moved at prices above $2. As the Senate prepares to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the outcome could shake up long-dormant supply and reshape the market.
XRP's next price move may depend on Washington, as the Senate prepares to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Nearly three-quarters of XRP's realized capitalization is tied up in coins last moved at prices above $2. The result could decide whether this dormant supply finally returns to the market or stays on the sidelines.
Cost basis bottleneck
Glassnode data shows that over $66 billion of XRP's realized capitalization sits in coins last moved between six months and two years ago. These holders, who make up more than 72% of the network's realized value, have an average cost above $2-well above XRP's recent trading range in the mid-$1.40s. Realized capitalization values coins at the price they last moved, highlighting where the largest cost basis clusters are. If XRP rallies toward $2, a large group of long-term holders would be close to breaking even, which could prompt renewed activity from investors who have been underwater for months or years.
The U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15, 2026, with a 60-vote threshold required just to begin formal debate.
Not every coin in these age bands is held at a loss, but the data shows most of XRP's realized value sits above current prices. More recent buyers are clustered around $1.14 to $1.40, with average costs much closer to spot. If the market moves toward $2, it will test whether older coins stay dormant or if shrinking losses trigger selling or rotation.
Exchange flows and market rotation
On-chain activity on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by volume, has added another wrinkle. On September 11, Binance received 91.23 million XRP and sent out 113.91 million XRP-both six-month highs for gross flows, according to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain. Despite these spikes, Binance's seven-day average XRP reserve rose just 0.43% week over week, and average derivatives open interest edged up 0.23% to $476.7 million. The simultaneous jump in inflows and outflows, paired with stable reserves and open interest, points to heavy internal wallet movement or market-maker rebalancing rather than a clear directional bet. This pattern of gross rotation, rather than net accumulation or distribution, leaves the market without a clear signal on whether large holders are preparing to sell or simply shifting positions.
Such ambiguous flows have become more common as exchanges and custodians manage internal transfers and market makers rebalance liquidity. For XRP, the lack of a clear move on Binance means that even as large volumes circulate, the market is still waiting for a catalyst strong enough to break the cost basis deadlock.
The latest version of the Clarity Act introduces registration requirements for group-controlled protocols and sets out specific rules for DeFi, but limits these to spot and cash digital commodity transactions. The bill also clarifies oversight responsibilities between the CFTC and Treasury, aiming to reduce regulatory uncertainty for digital assets.
Senate vote as regulatory catalyst
The next possible catalyst is U.S. legislation. The Senate is set to consider a cloture motion on H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, at 2:15 p.m. ET on September 15. This procedural vote isn't final passage, but it's a key step toward opening debate on a bill that could reshape digital asset regulation in the U.S. The current draft, reflecting over 120 changes from both parties, aims to clarify the status of digital commodities and the rules for trading and intermediaries.
A March interpretation from the SEC and CFTC already named XRP as a digital commodity, but that guidance didn't create new legal obligations or set the statutory market structure the Clarity Act proposes. For XRP holders, the Senate's progress could show whether the U.S. is moving toward a more predictable framework for digital asset trading or if regulatory uncertainty will continue. As reported earlier, previous attempts to advance the bill have faced setbacks, making this week's vote a key moment for both the token and the broader market.
Market stakes and dormant supply
XRP's current position below a dense cost basis zone means any rally toward $2 will be watched for signs of renewed selling from long-term holders. If older coins start to move more, or if exchange reserves and open interest climb alongside spot demand, it could signal a shift in market structure. On the other hand, continued high gross flows with stable inventory would suggest the market remains in rotation mode, with no clear directional conviction.
As of September 15, XRP ranked fifth by market capitalization at $88.2 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $4.88 billion and a circulating supply of 62.88 billion tokens. The token's price was up 0.28% over the previous 24 hours, but remains well below the average cost basis of its largest investor groups. Fully diluted valuation stood at $140.27 billion, showing the scale of capital at stake as the market waits for regulatory clarity.
For XRP, the mix of dormant supply, ambiguous exchange flows, and pending U.S. legislation has created a rare moment of market tension. The Senate's next move will test the resolve of long-term holders and show whether regulatory progress can unlock or keep billions in latent value on the sidelines. If the Clarity Act advances, expect a rapid reassessment of risk and opportunity for XRP and other digital assets navigating U.S. regulation.
Realized capitalization values each coin at the price it last moved, giving a more detailed view of investor cost basis than traditional market capitalization, which simply multiplies current price by total supply. This approach helps analysts spot where large amounts of capital may be sitting at a loss or profit, and can signal potential supply pressure if prices approach key cost basis levels. For tokens like XRP, where much of the supply is held by long-term investors above current prices, realized cap analysis can reveal risks and opportunities that aren't visible in headline price charts alone.
