Bitcoin's run to an eight-month high is losing steam. Spot demand is drying up, profit-taking is picking up, and futures now drive most of the action. The next move depends on whether new buyers can handle the selling from holders cashing out.
Bitcoin's latest surge has hit a wall. After climbing to nearly $87,400-its highest point in eight months-momentum is fading. The market has changed. Spot demand is slowing, more holders are taking profits, and most of the risk has shifted to derivatives.
Profit-taking ramps up
Short-term holders now have their biggest unrealized profits since December 2024, with margins at 33%. These aren't just paper gains. On September 22, Bitcoin holders locked in profits on 25,700 BTC. That's the largest single-day realized profit so far in 2026, according to CryptoQuant. As more holders sell, the supply for sale grows. The market needs new buyers to step in and absorb it.
During the week of September 21-25, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.39 billion-the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.
But spot demand is losing strength. CryptoQuant says spot buying dropped by about 170,000 BTC over the last 30 days. Still, Glassnode and The Block report that after a slowdown, ETF investors came back strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net weekly inflows jump to $2.7 billion, up 367.95% from the previous week's $575.3 million. This sharp rebound shows that big players still want Bitcoin exposure, even as short-term demand cools.
Even with strong weekly inflows, daily ETF inflows fell each day that week. Monday started near $999 million, but by Friday, inflows dropped to $134.5 million. This pattern points to a rebound in institutional demand, but also shows that momentum faded as prices hovered near their highs. Investors grew more cautious as the week went on.
Derivatives now drive risk
With spot trading quiet, risk has moved to derivatives. On Binance, the spot-to-futures volume ratio is now about 0.12. Nearly 90% of trading is happening in futures. For every dollar traded in spot, $8 to $9 moves through derivatives. Open interest on Binance fell from $10.6 billion to $9.2 billion in the past week. Glassnode says BTC-denominated open interest is now at its lowest since March, even after the recent rally.
Glassnode confirms this drop in leverage. Coin-denominated open interest in Bitcoin derivatives fell by about 20%, hitting its lowest since March 2026-even as Bitcoin trades 35% above its August lows. Glassnode analysts call this an "unusual dynamic": prices are rising, but leverage is leaving the market. This setup usually lowers the risk of big liquidation cascades, but it also means there's less speculative fuel for sharp gains.
Glassnode also observed that weekly trading volumes in BTC ETFs declined from $18.1 billion to $14.9 billion, indicating that while institutional demand persisted, overall turnover was lower than during the peak of market excitement.
Alphractal data shows Bitcoin's push toward $87,000 triggered the year's biggest short-liquidation pool. Bears were forced to buy back as prices climbed. That forced buying is now mostly over. The largest unliquidated positions left are on the long side. If prices drop, the market could see forced selling from these longs.
Key support levels in focus
With the short squeeze done, traders are watching support levels. The 365-day moving average is near $80,000. That's the level Bitcoin reclaimed when CryptoQuant called the start of the new bull run. Below that, the 200-day moving average sits near $71,000, and the realized price for traders is around $67,000. A move down to $80,000 would be the first real test of whether the breakout can hold up against profit-taking and weak new demand. If $80,000 doesn't hold, deeper support could be tested, and concentrated long positions could face forced liquidations.
Big investors haven't shown steady bullish conviction. Alphractal's Whales vs. Retail Delta briefly showed whales were more bullish than smaller traders, but that didn't last. For now, the market's direction depends on whether spot demand can bounce back and absorb the selling from holders who bought at lower prices.
Market context and outlook
Bitcoin sentiment is still high. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index is at 90 out of 100. Look Into Bitcoin reports the "greediest" reading since July 2025. But the data shows a market at a turning point. ETF inflows have slowed, spot demand is lagging, and futures risk is now tilted to the long side. As reported earlier, institutional bets in Bitcoin futures are now split, showing uncertainty about whether the rally can last without new buyers.
CryptoQuant says spot demand dropped by about 170,000 BTC in the last 30 days. ETF daily inflows fell from $1 billion to $31 million by September 28. Binance futures open interest dropped from $10.6 billion to $9.2 billion in the past week. Glassnode data shows BTC-denominated open interest at its lowest since March. On September 22, holders realized profits on 25,700 BTC, the biggest single-day total of 2026 so far.
Bitcoin's current setup shows the risk of relying on derivatives-driven momentum when spot demand is weak. As profit-taking speeds up and leverage shifts to the long side, the next move will likely depend on whether new buyers step in to absorb the selling, or if a drop to key support levels triggers more liquidations. For U.S. traders and investors, the message is simple: in a market ruled by derivatives and shrinking spot activity, risk can shift fast and without warning.
Derivatives can amplify both gains and losses in crypto markets. When most trading moves from spot to futures, the market becomes more sensitive to liquidation cascades-forced buying or selling when leveraged positions get closed. This can speed up price swings in both directions, especially when open interest is stacked on one side. For individual investors, knowing how leverage and liquidation risk interact with spot demand is key to handling volatile and shifting markets.
